Christopher Nichols, an associate professor of history at Oregon State University, has these thoughts about the State of Union address:
“After the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history, the State of the Union in 2019 is hard to depict as anything other than troubled. The underlying issue, President Trump's demand for a border wall funded at least in the amount of $5.7 billion, that precipitated and postponed the 2019 State of the Union Address, remains. Indeed, the president has threatened to shut the government again if his wishes are not met; he also has argued repeatedly that he might declare a national emergency to redirect funds for a wall-building project. Poll after poll demonstrates that these are unpopular positions for the majority of Americans. Still, it is entirely possible the speech will touch on, or even revolve around the border concerns that inspire Trump's current policy goals--in terms of immigration, national security, illegal drugs and the opioid addiction crisis, as well as trade.
“All signals point to President Trump trying to remain presidential and project a bipartisan spirit in this address. Why? Largely because of criticism regarding the shutdown, negative perceptions of Trump's partisanship, his falling and low approval ratings, and the need to try to make a deal with Congressional Democrats.
“Words matter, especially in national addresses to and about the state of the nation. This is a president, however, whose words and statements consistently and frequently alienate and agitate wide swaths of Americans. So in this speech we should look for phrases such as memorably foreboding "American carnage" of Trump's 2017 inaugural address, that are likely to epitomize the speech and reveal what increasingly seems to be this president's evocatively grim worldview.
“The new Democratic leadership of the House of Representatives, the frayed state of the Republican Party after the lengthy shutdown, and the overall political climate only further exacerbate the situation of any president, much less this president, trying to bring people together. In his 2018 State of the Union President Trump also appealed for unity and pledged to heal political wounds. In 2018 he rolled out a proposal for new infrastructure that has not yet been proposed or enacted. He also touted successes regarding judicial appointments, the stock market and job growth, rollback of regulations, and victories against ISIS. Still, in 2018 he did not mention the Russia investigations and he did not talk about the "Me Too" movement.
“The 2019 address will probably mirror those highs, lows, and omissions. Historically most presidents focus on successes in these addresses, and they often attempt to roll out new policy proposals. In this speech President Trump will likely emphasize five key issues: immigration, labor and workers, "rebuilding" (i.e., infrastructure), health care/prescription drugs/and the opioid crisis (including a path to reduce HIV transmissions), and national security. Will we witness a new policy? The return of a previous proposal?
“Insiders and main stream media reporting strongly suggest that this State of the Union speech will touch on this issues via a calming, even “traditional” political presentation. We are hearing the speech's main theme will be "choosing greatness" (in 2018 it was "heroes") and will seek to reposition the president, as he tried in the presidential campaign, inaugural address and previous state of the union, as a deal-maker above the fray of current politics and partisanship.
“You can see why the White House team chose this theme and strategy. But it is exceedingly unlikely to work. The president is a tremendously polarizing figure. The economy is not booming as it was for the last State of the Union, in part because of the shutdown that the president enacted and remarked he would "own." The acrimony and damage done during the shutdown further makes it hard to envision a scenario in which Trump’s bipartisan rhetoric is effective in achieving any policy effects or enhancing his approval ratings.”
More information about Nichols:
Nichols is available for print, radio and tv interviews. Oregon State University has on-campus tv and radio studios. He can be reached at [email protected].
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