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News — Before Putin's invasion of Ukraine, Europe relied heavily on Russia for natural gas. However, due to sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia, this supply is no longer available. European countries have been working hard to find and secure new gas suppliers. However, if the war and sanctions continue into the next winter, there could be a shortage of gas, especially if it's a cold winter and people need a lot of gas for heating. This could lead to homes being without heat and industries having to stop production. As a result, some countries may prioritize the needs of their own citizens and economy rather than showing solidarity with other countries.

If countries prioritize their own needs over showing solidarity in a scenario where there is a shortage of gas, it could have significant consequences. Researchers, led by Professor Giovanni Sansavini from ETH Zurich, conducted model calculations to explore this situation. Their study revealed that collaborating and demonstrating solidarity among European countries is beneficial. By working together, countries can avoid drastic and involuntary reductions in energy demand. In other words, solidarity would help prevent severe energy shortages and the negative impacts they would have on homes, industries, and the economy. The findings highlight the importance of cooperation and unity among nations to address energy challenges effectively.

Collaborating in solidarity refers to countries working together and providing assistance to one another during times of gas shortage. This can be achieved through bilateral agreements where a country agrees to reduce its own energy demand in order to supply gas to other countries facing urgent needs. However, it is worth noting that only eight such agreements have been made in Europe so far. These agreements are essential for promoting a cooperative approach and ensuring that countries support each other in times of energy crisis. By signing such agreements, countries demonstrate their willingness to prioritize collective well-being over individual interests.

If countries choose to act selfishly instead of collaborating in solidarity, it would mean prioritizing their own interests at the expense of others. In the context of gas shortages, countries like Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands could benefit from this approach as they would have more gas available for their own needs. However, this would lead to shortages in other countries. The countries most affected by such a selfish approach would be those along the eastern edge of Europe, stretching from Finland down through the Baltic States to the Balkans. These countries would face the greatest challenges in accessing sufficient gas supplies, potentially resulting in hardships for their populations. The unequal distribution of gas resources would exacerbate the energy crisis and create disparities among European nations.

Redirected gas flows in Europe

The shift in Europe's supply channels and the resulting challenges stem from the absence of Russia as a gas supplier. Previously, Russia supplied not only eastern European countries but also Finland. Despite Finland being located near Norway, a significant producer of natural gas, there is no gas pipeline connecting the two Nordic countries. This lack of direct infrastructure complicates the availability and accessibility of gas resources for Finland and other countries in the region. The dependence on Russian gas and the absence of alternative pipelines create vulnerabilities and the need for new supply arrangements to ensure energy security and mitigate the impact of gas shortages.

To compensate for the decreased reliance on Russian gas, Europe has increasingly turned to liquefied natural gas (LNG) as an alternative source. LNG is primarily imported by sea from countries such as the United States, Qatar, and Nigeria. The majority of ports equipped for LNG handling are situated along the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts, with Spain serving as the largest transfer hub. Norway continues to maintain high gas production levels, and imports from Algeria are also significant, with pipelines connecting Algeria to Spain and Italy for gas transportation into Europe. This diversification of gas sources and the use of LNG help mitigate the impact of the reduced supply from Russia and enhance Europe's energy security.

In other words, it’s now countries in Western Europe that are serving as the continent’s gateway to gas. And countries in the east and southeast suddenly find themselves at the end of the supply chain.

Paolo Gabrielli, a senior researcher in Sansavini's group and co-author of the study, points out that Europe's gas infrastructure was not originally designed to accommodate such a significant shift in gas sources. Cross-border pipelines, particularly in Southeastern Europe, are already operating at their maximum capacity. This vulnerability makes Southeastern Europe particularly susceptible to gas shortages and highlights the importance of relying on agreements with other countries for gas supply. Gabrielli suggests that addressing these existing bottlenecks requires additional investments in the gas infrastructure to enhance capacity and ensure a more reliable and flexible gas distribution system.

Voluntary action is less painful

Drawing from their findings, the researchers are urging policymakers to facilitate international coordination in the distribution and consumption of gas. They emphasize the importance of providing stronger incentives to individuals and companies across Europe to reduce their gas consumption, even in times when there is no immediate shortage. By encouraging a measured reduction in gas usage, gas storage facilities can be kept adequately filled, ensuring preparedness for colder winter periods. This proactive approach aims to enhance the overall resilience of gas supply and mitigate potential disruptions in the future.

According to Jacob Mannhardt, the lead author of the study and a doctoral student in Sansavini's group, choosing to reduce energy demand voluntarily and distributing the burden evenly among countries is a much preferable option compared to imposing massive energy demand reductions due to a lack of available energy. He emphasizes that international collaboration, coupled with proactive energy savings measures, is the most cost-effective approach to prevent a severe energy crisis. By taking proactive measures and working together, countries can mitigate the risks and ensure a more stable and sustainable energy future.

Reducing climate impact and dependence

In their study, the researchers from ETH Zurich examined the entire energy system, considering not only gas but also other energy sources and the electricity grid. Through their analysis, they determined that if gas-fired power stations were shut down and replaced with increased coal-based electricity generation, it would partially compensate for the 15 percent supply gap resulting from the absence of Russian natural gas. However, this alternative would have a significant drawback in terms of climate impact. Specifically, such a shift would lead to a 5 percent rise in greenhouse gas emissions within the electricity and heating sector, contributing to increased climate damage. It highlights the trade-off between addressing the supply gap and the associated environmental consequences.

According to Paolo Gabrielli, one of the researchers involved in the study, the diversification of natural gas supply, particularly through LNG imports, has helped stabilize Europe's gas supply. However, he emphasizes the need for Europe to learn from this energy crisis and recognize the risks associated with dependence on foreign countries for energy supply. Simply switching to a different foreign supplier does not eliminate the underlying issue of dependency. This suggests the importance of exploring strategies to enhance energy self-sufficiency and reduce reliance on external sources for a more secure and resilient energy future.

To address the concerns of climate damage and avoid creating new dependencies, the researchers propose redirecting the current momentum towards investing in domestic energy supply. This includes expanding renewable technologies, promoting electrification efforts, and facilitating electricity trading across Europe. By prioritizing these measures, countries can work towards a more sustainable and self-reliant energy system that reduces greenhouse gas emissions and enhances energy security.