News — Microbial organisms – particularly Bacteria – dominate life on Earth, yet tracing their early history and how they have developed over time has long eluded scientists because they rarely fossilise.
But a new study, published today in the journal Science, maps out the evolution of bacteria for the first time by piecing together the chemical clues of available nutrients that could support their growth held in ancient sediments and rocks.
The international team, including researchers from the University of Bristol, in the UK, and led by the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology (OIST), in Japan, used a key evolutionary turning point – the Great Oxidation Event – when oxygen accumulated in the atmosphere around 2.3 billion years ago to unravel how microbes adapted to it.
They constructed a detailed timeline, harnessing the power of machine learning, which indicates some bacteria could use trace oxygen long before acquiring the ability to produce it through photosynthesis.
The Great Oxidation, triggered in large part by the development of oxygenic (oxygen-generating) photosynthesis in cyanobacteria and carbon deposition, fundamentally changed Earth’s atmosphere from one mostly devoid of oxygen to one where oxygen became relatively abundant, as it is today.
Until now, establishing accurate timescales for how bacteria evolved before, during, and after this pivotal transition has been difficult due to incomplete fossil evidence and the challenge of determining the maximum possible ages for microbial groups. The only reliable maximum limit for the vast majority of lineages is the Moon-forming impact 4.5 billion years ago, which likely sterilized the planet.
Co-author Dr Tom Williams, Associate Professor in Molecular Evolution at the University of Bristol, said: “Our work shows that modelling microbial traits from their genomes using machine learning works well for studying the spread of aerobic metabolisms, and might also be a useful approach for exploring how other traits emerged and interacted with the planet's shifting environment across geological time.”
The researchers addressed the historic gaps by simultaneously analysing geological and genetic DNA records. Their key innovation was to use the Gabon and Oxygenation of Earth (GOE) itself as a time boundary, assuming that most aerobic (oxygen-using) branches of bacteria are unlikely to be older than this event – unless fossil or genetic signals strongly suggest an earlier origin. Using Bayesian statistics, they created a model that can override this assumption when data supports it.
Co-author Dr Gergely SzöllÅ‘si, Associate Professor and leader of the Model-based Evolutionary Genomics Unit at OIST, said: “This combined approach of using genomic data, fossils, and Earth’s geochemical history brings new clarity to evolutionary timelines, especially for microbial groups that don’t have a fossil record.”
This approach, however, requires making predictions about which lineages were aerobic in the deep past. The team used probabilistic methods to infer which genes ancient genomes contained, and then machine-learning to predict whether they used oxygen. To optimise the fossil record, they leveraged fossils of eukaryotes, whose mitochondria evolved from Alphaproteobacteria, and chloroplasts evolved from cyanobacteria to better estimate how and when aerobic bacteria evolved.
Their results indicate that at least three lineages had aerobic lifestyles before the GOE – the earliest nearly 900 million years before – suggesting that a capacity for using oxygen evolved well before its widespread accumulation in the atmosphere. Intriguingly, these findings point to the possibility that aerobic metabolism may have occurred long before the evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis. Evidence suggests that the earliest aerobic transition occurred in an ancestor of photosynthetic cyanobacteria, indicating that the ability to utilize trace amounts of oxygen may have allowed the development of genes central to oxygenic photosynthesis.
The study estimates that the last common ancestor of all modern bacteria lived sometime between 4.4 and 3.9 billion years ago, in the Hadean or earliest Archaean era. The ancestors of major bacterial phyla are placed in the Archaean and Proterozoic eras (2.5-1.8 billion years ago), while many families date back to 0.6-0.75 billion years ago, overlapping with the era when land plants and animal phyla originated.
Notably, once atmospheric oxygen levels rose during the GOE, aerobic lineages diversified more rapidly than their anaerobic counterparts, indicating that oxygen availability played a substantial role in shaping bacterial evolution.
Paper
‘A geological timescale for bacterial evolution and oxygen adaption’ by Adrián A. Davín et al in Science
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Credit: Kaori Serakaki (OIST)
Caption: Image depicts modern cyanobacteria – green chain cells – which are known for their role in oxygenic photosynthesis. Evidence from the geological record suggests some bacteria developed the ability to use trace oxygen around 3.2 billion years ago, potentially before evolving the ability to produce it through photosynthesis.

Credit: DavÃn et al., 2025
Caption: Bacterial evolution and oxygen adaptation: A timeline built from genomic, fossil, and chemical data. Colors show oxygen states: anaerobic (blue), aerobic (red), and proportion of aerobic lineages in modern bacterial phyla (purple shades). Analysis includes mitochondria and plastids to leverage eukaryotic fossil data. Land plants and animals are shown for time reference.
CITATIONS
Science