News — Jacob Shively Associate Professor, International Relations from Univeristy of West Florida:
"In Lebanon, Israelis appear to be enacting a set of plans that they may have been refining since their last war with Hezbollah in 2006. After that conflict, Hezbollah neither disarmed nor fully vacated areas designated in a UN-led agreement. With Hezbollah’s ongoing missile attacks after the 7 October attacks, thousands of Israelis were displaced from their homes near the northern border and have been demanding a secure return. Israel’s initial escalation with the pager attacks may have been a long-standing strategic plan or simply a response to a particular window of opportunity, such as fears that their pager program may have been close to discovery. Either way, the country’s leaders now seem determined to steadily escalate their campaign until they believe Hezbollah is largely dismantled, at least in the short to medium term. Such an approach is appealing for a more powerful actor like Israel. Technically, it has the wherewithal to get close to that target; however, as asymmetric wars from Afghanistan to Israel’s own occupation of southern Lebanon in the 1980s illustrate, decimating a network like Hezbollah is necessary but not sufficient to defeat the organization. Hezbollah, along with Hamas in Gaza, retain a core of supporters who are unlikely to be defeated solely with coercion. A key factor to watch, now, is Iran. If Tehran follows up with more attacks and direct support for Hezbollah in coming days and weeks, then civilians in Lebanon and Israel are likely to be trapped in yet another slow and grinding conflict."
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