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URBANA, Ill. — Last week’s classification of BA.2.86 as a COVID "variant under monitoring" by the raises many epidemiological and public health questions. Among the unknowns is how the virus evolved to acquire 36 to 38 mutations on its spike protein, relative to other circulating variants. from the studies evolution in the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and is available to comment on the strain spreading rapidly around the world. 

“The new variant likely emerged through accumulation of multiple mutations in an immunocompromised individual or through recombination events capable of stitching genomic pieces together,” said Caetano-Anollés, professor of bioinformatics in the in the (ACES), and health innovation professor in the at U. of I. Caetano-Anollés is also affiliated with  

Caetano-Anollés’ group has since the start of the pandemic, analyzing millions of SARS-CoV-2 genomes across the globe. In 2021, his team as well as likely to drive seasonal patterns. More recently, he completed a to understand how some 180,000 mutations appeared, coalesced, persisted, and/or died away across three major variants of concern (VOCs), Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. 

“In our genomic studies, a large pool of variants with disparate mutation repertoires already appeared at low prevalence during the early pandemic,” Caetano-Anollés said. “These variants are probably being actively recruited into new circulating variants, including those with the genomic makeup of the BA.2.68 type.”

He added, “The new variant is causing concern due to its rapid community-level transmission, potential immune escape, and uncertainty regarding its severity and transmissibility. Careful monitoring and research will be required to understand its impact and evolutionary trajectory.”

The (ACES) at the has top-ranked programs, dedicated students, and world-renowned faculty and alumni who are developing solutions to the world’s most critical challenges to provide abundant food and energy, a healthy environment, and successful families and communities.