News — WASHINGTON (Nov. 2, 2020)—How President Trump makes voters feel may be a barrier to his path to victory according to new polling research from the George Washington University.
In the nationwide , released today, when registered voters were asked about their emotional reactions to candidates, Biden held a 10 point advantage on hopeful and proud reactions. By contrast Trump was more likely to generate anger, disgust and fear in the electorate than Biden with 70% saying they have felt anger and disgust because of President Trump. These emotions are even evident among Republicans and independent leaning Republicans. On angry and disgusted, just over 40% of Republicans say that Trump makes them feel that way at least "some of the time."
“With political science research showing that emotions play a prominent role in shaping both voters’ choices and turnout, Americans’ feelings about the president are one reason his path to reelection is fraught,” GW researchers Danny Hayes and Kimberly Gross said about the poll findings. “He makes a lot of voters, even some of his own supporters feel bad. This makes his pitch to voters to like and support him, beyond his core constituency, difficult.”
Research also shows that when people are mad they are more likely to show up at the polls (or mail in their ballots). Nearly all Democrats polled expressed anger in conjunction with Trump and that may be helping to drive high early Democratic turnout.
One bright spot for the president, those who say they are voting for him are more enthusiastic about supporting him than are Biden’s supporters. Of those who say they are voting for Trump, 75% say they are very enthusiastic about supporting Trump, whereas only 59% of those who say they are voting for Biden say they are very enthusiastic about supporting Biden.
This enthusiasm is likely important for Trump., When asked how they planned to vote (among those who had not already voted), 53% of Republicans said they planned to vote in person on election day. That level of enthusiasm should help with getting out the republican vote on election day, something Trump will need given the democratic advantage in early voting.
Republicans surveyed felt angry or disgusted at least some of the time toward Trump at 44% and 42% respectively, while also feeling angry (90%) and disgusted (82%) toward Biden. Among Democrats, 94% and 97% report feeling angry and disgusted toward Trump respectively while angry (30%) or disgusted (26%) at least some of the time with their own candidate.
The poll showed Biden with a 10-point lead nationally. Voters were more confident in Biden’s ability to deal with the pandemic, a signature issue in the election. Voters also give Biden higher marks on traits like leadership, empathy, honesty and morality.
Views on the Election Outcome
When asked “regardless of who you support, are you prepared to accept the outcome of the election as legitimate or are you not prepared to do that at this time?” only a bare majority, 53% of respondents, said they were prepared to accept the outcome as legitimate. Nearly 30% say they don’t know if they are prepared to accept the outcome. Given the polls, and Presidential rhetoric about voter fraud, it is not surprising that more Democrats are prepared to accept the outcome than Republicans—61% of Democrats compared with 46% of Republicans.
Voters are also concerned about the integrity of the balloting. In response to a question on election accuracy, only 61% of respondents say they are very or somewhat confident that votes will be counted accurately in the election. Results show wide partisan differences, 76% of Democrats whereas 46% of Republicans are confident that votes will be counted accurately.
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The complete poll also included data on political participation, engagement and mobilization; the candidate’s ability to handle issues, and candidate traits. For additional data and analysis, visit the . For interviews with the professors leading the poll, contact .
About the GW Politics Poll
The GW Politics Poll is managed jointly by GW's , and . , a respected leader in online polling, conducted the academic, nonpartisan research poll for GW.The poll was fielded October 16-26, with a sample of 2,500 registered voters and a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points for the full sample.
The GW Politics Poll continues the strong tradition of public opinion research at GW, which includes the , a nationally recognized series of surveys conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. The final edition of the GW Battleground Poll was released in March 2018.
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