麻豆传媒

“I don’t predict a hurricane season. If a hurricane makes landfall near where you live, that is an active season for you,” says URI Professor of Oceanography Isaac Ginis. Yet predicting the severity of a hurricane can mean the difference between life and death, which is why Ginis makes it his business to predict the power of these ferocious storms. He developed a computer model so successful it was adopted by the National Weather Service. As one of the few scientists worldwide to show the role the ocean plays in hurricanes, Ginis essentially proved that ocean temperature is the most important factor in hurricane intensity and power. Ginis’s research efforts have resulted in pioneering advances in modeling of the tropical cyclone-ocean interactions that have led to significant improvements in hurricane intensity forecast skills. His research group has contributed to the development of the Hurricane Weather Research Forecast model used by the U.S. National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center for operational forecasting of tropical cyclones in all ocean basins. One of his team’s most recent projects, the Rhode Island Coastal Hazards, Analysis, Modeling and Prediction (RI-CHAMP) system, advances storm model capabilities and develops a real-time hazard and impact prediction system for hurricanes and nor'easters in Southern New England. The system provides actionable information to decision makers in helping to prepare for a storm. When it comes to forecasting hurricanes, the focus is usually on more tropical locales. However, Ginis says, “the farther they move to the north, the more complex they become.”

Brian Tang researches tropical cyclones (hurricanes). He studies how they form and what causes them to intensify and weaken. In particular, he is interested in how cloud clusters organize into tropical cyclones, how vertical wind shear weakens tropical cyclones by injecting dry air into the storm, how tropical cyclones rapidly intensify, and how midlatitude weather systems interact with tropical cyclones. He is the author of a popular webpage that contains real-time track and intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones.

Tang also researches severe weather. He studies how terrain influences severe thunderstorms over the northeastern U.S. The research has helped weather forecasters recognize situations where the risk of severe weather is higher. Tang has also studied trends in large hail over the U.S., which has been increasing over parts of the U.S. due to environmental factors.

Ryan Torn's current research focuses on trying to understand atmospheric predictability by determining the source and growth of uncertainty within numerical models across a number of timescales using ensemble forecasts. This includes employing sensitivity analysis, which can be used to identify locations where to take observations that could improve the forecast.  He is an expert in both hurricane and atmospheric river forecasting.

Dr. Bassill received his PhD in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, with a research focus in ensemble and parameterization studies. Afterward, he worked as a Post-Doctoral researcher at the University of Utah, where he studied aspects of Hurricane Sandy’s unusual track (including what led some models to make an incorrect forecast). Afterward he was hired as a Post-Doctoral researcher with the New York State Mesonet to begin building an operational analysis system that would utilize mesonet observations. Concurrently, he is actively involved in building meteorological products for and doing basic research with the New York State Mesonet. Currently, Nick predominantly spends his time working with the Center of Excellence on a variety of projects.